Goldman Sachs Lowers Tesla Delivery Targets as Core Auto Sales Slow

Goldman Sachs has lowered its quarterly vehicle delivery projections for Tesla, Inc., citing slower sales trends across the company's core markets in the United States, China, and Europe, according to a report from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/delivery-outlook-shows-tesla-tsla-171443015.html).

The investment bank cut its third-quarter delivery forecast to 435,000 vehicles, down from an earlier estimate of 490,000. That figure places Goldman's outlook below the wider Wall Street consensus of 456,000 units. For the fourth quarter, Goldman reduced its projection to 475,000 vehicles from 515,000, though that revised number remains slightly above the consensus estimate of 462,000 vehicles.

The delivery revisions highlight uncertainty over whether Tesla is experiencing a temporary sales dip or broader demand headwinds. While broader availability of the Model Y L could bolster volumes in future quarters, persistent softness despite product ramp-ups and seasonal demand would pose difficult questions about the automaker's baseline trajectory.

As growth slows in its core automotive business, Tesla's valuation increasingly hinges on autonomy initiatives, specifically its Full Self-Driving (FSD) system and the Cybercab robotaxi platform. Tesla has begun offering robotaxi services in Austin, Texas, using vehicles designed without steering wheels or pedals. The rollout has drawn scrutiny from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA), which is investigating whether Tesla properly self-certified the vehicles under federal motor vehicle safety standards.

Institutional positioning shows a split view among fund managers. Data from Insider Monkey indicates that hedge fund ownership of Tesla fell from 123 funds in the first quarter to 116 in the second quarter. During the period, BAMCO increased its stake by 5% to 12.5 million shares, D. E. Shaw trimmed its holding to 4.3 million shares, and Holocene Advisors maintained its position at 3.6 million shares.

Short interest also expanded ahead of the quarter's end. As of August 31, short sellers held 74.2 million shares—representing 2.35% of Tesla's public float with two days to cover—marking a 7.27% increase in short positions from the prior period.