Howmet Aerospace Stock Rebounds as Analysts Dismiss SpaceX In-House Turbine Threat

Shares of Howmet Aerospace experienced a volatile trading period following an unexpected announcement from Elon Musk regarding SpaceX's ambitions in power generation hardware. The market reaction triggered a sharp decline in the aerospace and energy component manufacturer’s stock, before Wall Street analysts and financial commentators weighed in on the operational realities of turbine component manufacturing and the broader demands created by artificial intelligence infrastructure.

The market decline began after Musk revealed in a post on X that SpaceX intends to internally cast turbine blades and vanes—specialized metal parts operating in the high-temperature sections of gas turbines. Musk stated that the in-house production aims to accelerate energy generation for artificial intelligence data centers, specifically supporting a planned 20-gigawatt facility in Bastrop, Texas. Because Howmet is among a select group of global manufacturers capable of producing these precision components, investors initially interpreted the statement as a major customer developing competing capabilities. As reported by CNBC, Howmet shares fell as much as 7.7% during trading on Monday, Aug. 31, before finishing the session down more than 8%, dropping from near $265 to around $256.

Wall Street research firms quickly pushed back against the market selloff, arguing that entering the specialized casting sector requires decades of proprietary technical knowledge that cannot be established rapidly. Bernstein analyst Douglas Harned maintained an Outperform rating on Howmet and increased his price target from $248 to $328, noting in a research report cited by GuruFocus that SpaceX's plan presents minimal risk to Howmet’s market position. Harned emphasized that Howmet controls more than 50% of the market for these critical castings and holds long-term customer supply agreements running through 2030. Similarly, Citi analyst John Godyn reiterated a Buy rating with a $329 target while opening a 30-day catalyst watch, describing the price drop as a short-lived buying opportunity driven by capacity tightness rather than erosion of competitive advantage.

Media commentators also addressed the stock's slump. On Wednesday, Sept. 2, CNBC host Jim Cramer addressed the company during the Lightning Round segment of "Mad Money." Cramer advised viewers to maintain or expand their positions in Howmet, describing the stock as the single best vehicle for aerospace sector exposure due to operational complexities facing competing companies.

The underlying demand driver for Howmet's gas-turbine division stems from the massive electricity requirements of artificial intelligence data centers, which increasingly rely on natural gas turbines for primary power supply. This structural trend has significantly bolstered Howmet’s financial results. According to company press release disclosures, Howmet’s gas-turbine segment revenue jumped 39% in the first quarter, building upon a 25% revenue increase across full-year 2025. To meet demand and preserve its pricing power, the company is executing six expansion projects designed to increase blade manufacturing capacity by up to 38% compared to early 2025 levels. Industry competitors including GE Vernova and Siemens Energy are likewise rushing to build out casting capacity, reflecting a widespread shortage across the sector.

Beyond power generation, Howmet maintains a substantial commercial aerospace and defense business supplying structural components and engine parts to major aircraft manufacturers, including Boeing. Despite ongoing assembly line delays and delivery challenges at major commercial plane makers, Howmet benefits from steady demand for aftermarket replacement components required by commercial airlines to keep existing fleets operational. Additionally, ongoing defense upgrades provide a consistent revenue pipeline that operates independently of commercial aircraft manufacturing cycles.

Despite favorable analyst sentiment, Howmet trades at an elevated valuation, carrying a price-to-earnings ratio near 55. Such a multiple leaves the stock sensitive to sudden sentiment shifts and headline risks, as demonstrated by the reaction to Musk’s social media post. Nevertheless, broader Wall Street consensus remains overwhelmingly positive. The stock carries a Strong Buy consensus rating, with 12 of 14 covering analysts recommending a Buy and the average analyst price target standing at $340, according to financial data cited in reporting by Yahoo Finance.

For institutional and retail market observers tracking AI infrastructure supply chains, the recent price movement illustrates how energy bottlenecks are reshaping manufacturing expectations. While high-valuation stocks remain subject to short-term price swings when new potential market entrants emerge, Howmet’s entrenched market position, extensive patent portfolio, and long-dated supply agreements continue to underpin its position across aerospace and data center energy markets.