Kalshi Traders Put Low Odds on Passage of Digital Asset Clarity Act This Year

Prediction market traders on Kalshi believe there is a low probability that a major federal cryptocurrency regulatory bill will be enacted into law before the end of the year, according to reporting first published by CNBC Business.

The proposed legislation, known as the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act, cleared the House of Representatives with bipartisan support in July 2025. The bill is now scheduled for a procedural vote in the Senate on Sept. 15.

Despite increased advocacy from the executive branch, including public remarks from President Donald Trump urging Congress last week to approve "a fair version of the Clarity Act," Kalshi contract pricing reflects less than a 25 percent chance of enactment by year-end. Furthermore, platform traders place less than a 50 percent chance on the law being implemented by April 2027.

The legislative proposal aims to establish precise regulatory boundaries between federal agencies overseeing digital financial products. Under the status quo, the Securities and Exchange Commission manages securities, while the Commodity Futures Trading Commission regulates derivatives markets, including futures contracts and prediction platforms. Although both regulators have issued guidance on digital assets, statutory rules clarifying agency jurisdiction remain absent.

The low expectations for legislative passage come amidst a sharp increase in digital asset valuations. Bitcoin prices climbed more than 20 percent over the past week, supported in part by renewed White House attention on the Clarity Act.

Top regulatory officials have actively participated in administration discussions regarding the sector. SEC Chairman Paul Atkins and CFTC Chairman Michael Selig both attended a high-level meeting between President Trump and cryptocurrency executives last week.

During the CFTC's inaugural Innovation Advisory Committee meeting on Thursday, Selig indicated that his agency is prepared to proceed independently if Congress fails to enact the measure. Selig stated, "If Clarity continues to stall because of Democrat obstruction, the CFTC will utilize its existing authorities to begin establishing a regime for crypto asset markets. We owe it to the American people to do so."