Ripple CTO Emeritus Says XRP Could Outpace Bitcoin in Valuation Under Expanding Market Conditions

Ripple CTO Emeritus David Schwartz recently stated that XRP could eventually surpass Bitcoin in total market capitalization, though he underscored that such a flip would depend on XRP growing at a faster pace within an expanding crypto market rather than Bitcoin losing valuation. Speaking during an X Spaces broadcast hosted by ILLY on Sept. 9, the XRP Ledger co-architect offered his perspective on the long-term potential of the token, as reported by Yahoo Finance.

When asked by a listener named Angie whether XRP could overtake Bitcoin, Schwartz responded affirmatively while framing the prerequisite conditions. He clarified that a reversal in market rankings would not stem from a contraction in Bitcoin's market presence. Instead, he described a scenario in which the broader cryptocurrency ecosystem continues to expand, with XRP compounding at an accelerated rate relative to Bitcoin, allowing both digital assets to appreciate while XRP captures greater relative market share.

Despite his optimism regarding an XRP surge, Schwartz emphasized that his outlook represents a directional opinion rather than a specific price forecast, leaving both the timeline and key price milestones open-ended. Closing the massive valuation disparity between the two digital assets remains a formidable mathematical challenge under current market conditions. As of Sept. 12, Bitcoin traded near $77,310 with a market capitalization ranging between $1.54 trillion and $1.58 trillion, compared to XRP's price of $1.36 and a market cap between $85 billion and $89 billion.

The valuation difference creates a $1.49 trillion gap that XRP must overcome to match Bitcoin's scale. Based on XRP's circulating supply of 62.7 billion tokens, achieving Bitcoin's present market capitalization would require the price of XRP to climb to approximately $24.50. That calculation represents a price target more than 6.4 times higher than XRP's all-time high of $3.84, a record established during the cryptocurrency market rally in January 2018 that has not been reached since.

The target also remains dynamic. If Bitcoin's total market capitalization continues to grow, the price XRP would need to attain to equal it rises accordingly. Market participants frequently point to early 2018, when a rapid price surge propelled XRP past Ethereum to briefly become the second-largest cryptocurrency by market cap at approximately $86 billion. However, that historical rally saw XRP bridge a gap of roughly 15%, whereas it currently trails Bitcoin's valuation by a factor of 18.

Furthermore, Bitcoin's current market structure includes structural advantages that Ethereum lacked in 2018, including spot exchange-traded funds, institutional corporate treasury holdings, and a settled regulatory status. A repeat of XRP's 2018 price movement at an equivalent scale would currently only be sufficient to return the asset to second place behind Bitcoin rather than taking the top market position.

Recent performance indicators show that XRP has recently outperformed Bitcoin, aligning with the directional trend Schwartz outlined, though remaining far short of the necessary scale. Over the prior month, XRP recorded a gain of 34.59%, compared to a 21.77% increase for Bitcoin. To close the $1.49 trillion separation without Bitcoin losing value, XRP would need to expand its current valuation by roughly 18 times, a shift requiring years of sustained outperformance with no major technical updates or catalysts scheduled before the end of 2026.

Industry analysts suggest that the earliest tangible sign of a potential flip would be several consecutive quarters where XRP's market capitalization consistently expands faster than Bitcoin's, paired with a rise in payment clearing volume on the XRP Ledger for utility that Bitcoin products do not directly compete against. Until such operational metrics materialize, XRP surpassing Bitcoin remains a theoretical outcome contingent on unprecedented sector-wide expansion.