SpaceX Shares Trade 5% Below Debut Price as Heavy AI Outlays and Lockups Weigh on $2T Valuation

Space Exploration Technologies Corp. has seen its stock price stall in the three months following the largest initial public offering in history on June 12. Shares closed their inaugural session at $160.95 and finished the week at $152.71, down roughly 5% despite rapid revenue growth, according to a report from Yahoo Finance (https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/articles/spacex-stock-gone-nowhere-since-195701417.html).

The flat three-month trajectory masks significant market volatility. SpaceX shares rose to $211.39 on their third day of trading before falling to a low near $108 in early August, followed by a steady recovery through September.

A heavy schedule of insider lockup expirations has acted as an overhang on share prices. SpaceX floated approximately 639 million shares in its IPO out of more than 13 billion outstanding. Early investors and employees gained clearance to trade 911 million shares shortly after the company's August earnings report, followed by two separate releases of 319 million shares in late August and early September.

Additional share releases will expand public float through the end of the year. Tranches of approximately 328 million shares are scheduled to unlock on Sept. 24, Oct. 9, and Oct. 24. Another 1.3 billion shares become eligible two trading days after third-quarter results, followed by roughly 800 million on Dec. 8. Chief Executive Elon Musk's holding of about 6.4 billion shares—roughly half the company—remains locked until June 2027.

Operationally, SpaceX reported rapid top-line expansion in its first quarterly report as a public company. Second-quarter revenue surged 92% year-over-year to $7.8 billion, accelerating from 15% growth in the first quarter. The company's net loss narrowed to $541 million from $1.0 billion a year earlier, while its operating loss contracted to $143 million from $1.9 billion in the first quarter.

Investor caution has centered largely on capital expenditures. SpaceX spent $18.4 billion during the second quarter, more than double its total revenue for the period. Outlays in its artificial intelligence unit—which includes data centers, Grok models, and social platform X—accounted for $15.8 billion of that total, up from $749 million a year earlier and $7.7 billion in the first quarter of 2026.

SpaceX held $100 billion in cash and marketable securities at the end of June, supported by approximately $86 billion in net proceeds from its IPO. The infrastructure buildout supported $14.1 billion in new cloud services agreements signed during the quarter, with AI segment revenue tripling year-over-year to $2.6 billion.

The company debuted at an initial valuation near $1.8 trillion, or roughly 94 times annualized first-quarter revenue. At its current market capitalization of approximately $2 trillion, revenue growth has brought that multiple down to about 65 times annualized sales. Separately, SpaceX is preparing for the first orbital launch attempt of its Starship vehicle, targeted for Sept. 28 following a six-day postponement.