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Why Late-Stage Valuations Stopped Falling

Structure, not sentiment, explains most of the apparent recovery.

By David Canel7 min read
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An analyst studying valuation charts on monitors at night
An analyst studying valuation charts on monitors at night. Photograph for The Company Wire.

Structure, not sentiment, explains most of the apparent recovery.

Inside the companies involved, this has been building for months. What changed is that the economics finally became visible from the outside.

Margins are the pressure point. Compute, distribution and support costs all scale with usage, so growth that once looked like leverage now shows up as a line item somebody has to defend quarterly.

Talent is the quiet constraint. The teams able to execute on this are small, well known to each other, and increasingly able to name their price.

For customers, the practical effect is more choice and shorter contracts — a reversal after two years in which incumbents dictated terms.

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Written by

David Canel

Markets Columnist · New York

David writes a twice-weekly column on public and private market valuations, listings and consolidation.