AI Infrastructure Surge Could Yield 617 Million Tons of E-Waste by 2050, Report Warns

The environmental toll of artificial intelligence infrastructure has been significantly underestimated, according to a report published by the environmental non-profit Basel Action Network (BAN). The study projects that retired hardware from the AI expansion could create between 395 million and 617 million metric tons of electronic waste between 2025 and 2050. That cumulative volume of discarded equipment would fill approximately 23 million 40-foot shipping containers, a line long enough to encircle the Earth six times, as first reported by The Verge.

The higher estimates stem from BAN's broader accounting methodology. Previous research into tech sector waste focused almost exclusively on servers and graphics processing units (GPUs). In contrast, BAN calculated the full lifecycle footprint of data centers, incorporating power supply systems, electricity distribution networks, industrial cooling equipment, backup energy generators, and networking hardware. The organization noted that earlier studies failed to track roughly 87 percent of a facility's electro-mechanical supporting systems.

In addition to core data center infrastructure, BAN factored in what it terms "AI Waste Contagion." This category encompasses telecommunications equipment and personal consumer electronics that will reach end-of-life status significantly faster due to rapid shifts in AI-driven hardware requirements. BAN calculates that every gigawatt of operational data center capacity generates roughly 70,000 metric tons of electronic waste. Citing projections from management consulting firm McKinsey & Company, global data center capacity is expected to reach up to 219 gigawatts by 2030.

"AI may feel weightless, but every model depends on an enormous amount of highly specialized, cutting edge hardware," Jim Puckett, founder and chief of strategic direction at BAN, said in a statement accompanying the report. "If companies and governments do not begin planning for this new waste tsunami, today’s AI buildout could become an even more cataclysmic toxic waste crisis than we are already experiencing."

Globally, electronic waste management remains a persistent environmental challenge. Out of the 68.3 million tons of total e-waste created worldwide each year, less than a quarter is officially gathered and processed through accredited recycling streams. The majority enters unregulated informal collection systems, where processes such as open burning or shallow landfilling expose local populations and soils to hazardous chemical elements, including lead and chromium.

The United States houses more data centers than any other country but has yet to ratify the Basel Convention, the primary international treaty designed to restrict the transboundary movement of hazardous waste. Investigative studies show that U.S. recycling firms frequently export scrap electronics to developing nations where informal processing is widespread. According to figures from the World Health Organization, millions of children living near informal recycling sites face severe health hazards from toxic exposures.

BAN estimates that global electronic waste across all industries will triple by mid-century, hitting up to 211 million metric tons per year by 2050, with AI applications responsible for 15 to 20 percent of the total volume. That translates to an annual retirement rate of 8.6 million to 13.1 million metric tons of AI-related hardware. Earlier studies yielded lower projections; a 2024 study calculated cumulative AI e-waste reaching 1.2 million to 5 million tons by 2030, while a study published in February estimated annual server waste reaching between 131,000 and 225,000 tons by the end of the decade.