Hyundai Projected to Overtake Ford in U.S. Quarterly Sales for First Time

Hyundai Motor is projected to surpass Ford Motor in quarterly U.S. auto sales for the first time on record during the third quarter, according to a forecast by Cox Automotive reported by CNBC Business. The market researcher expects South Korean automaker Hyundai—including its luxury Genesis line and affiliate Kia—to deliver 511,421 vehicles from July through September, an increase of 6.5% year over year. In contrast, Ford is forecasted to report a 7.1% decline in third-quarter deliveries to 504,172 vehicles. If realized, the shift would place Hyundai as the third-largest automaker in the U.S. market, trailing only General Motors and Toyota Motor.

The anticipated ranking change comes amid broader resilience in overall vehicle demand. Cox Automotive raised its full-year 2026 U.S. new-vehicle sales forecast by roughly 2% to 16.1 million units. Cox chief economist Jeremy Robb noted on a media call that while new and used sales have edged down year over year, the market has held up comparatively well.

Industry analysts attribute Hyundai's growth largely to its hybrid vehicle lineup at a time when elevated fuel costs—averaging $4.48 per gallon nationally, according to AAA—are driving consumer interest toward more fuel-efficient options. Conversely, Detroit automakers have faced product mix constraints. General Motors offers only a hybrid version of the Chevrolet Corvette, while Ford's hybrid options are limited to its Maverick and F-150 pickups. Ford has also contended with production setbacks on its F-Series lineup following two supplier fires last year.

In response to the forecast, Ford stated that it continued to outsell Hyundai through August and pointed to broader structural shifts in manufacturing and trade. The company said the forecast highlights the rapid growth of South Korean vehicle imports from Hyundai, Kia, and GM, arguing that currency dynamics, tariffs, labor costs, and supply chains currently favor manufacturing in South Korea over domestic production, where Ford builds more vehicles than any other manufacturer.

Product strategies among domestic manufacturers have also shifted alongside policy changes. GM, Ford, and Stellantis have renewed focus on V-8 engines for large pickups and SUVs following the Trump administration's deregulation of emissions and fuel economy standards. Meanwhile, Hyundai CEO José Muñoz told CNBC that overtaking Ford in U.S. sales was not an explicit corporate objective, but rather the result of product execution and quality focus, noting Hyundai's position as the third-largest automaker globally.

The forecast also points to tightening competition at the top of the U.S. market. GM is projected to see third-quarter sales drop 5.2% to 671,706 vehicles, while Toyota is expected to rise 2.2% to 642,707 units. For the full year, Toyota trails GM by fewer than 121,100 units; an annual lead would mark only the second time Toyota has outsold GM in the U.S., following 2021. Stellantis is expected to post a 1.3% decline in third-quarter U.S. sales, with full-year deliveries projected to rise 2.8% amid an ongoing turnaround plan.